Cricket - 2nd Test, Efficient Kiwis, Overconfident Indians

As the 2nd test unfolds, it looks more and more true that Yuvraj Singh is not a test match batsman. It also shows that Virender Sehwag is a predictable one. He will take risks no matter what the situation.

The Kiwis have always played international cricket based on a limited pool of talent. Their main weakness is the lack of depth in their teams. Due to this, they rely on their strengths which are

1. Efficienctly using their limited resources
2. Being tactically smarter than their opponents
   
3. Avoiding obvious mistakes

If one stays with them on these three fronts, their lack of depth gets exposed. Just watch them play Australia or South Africa. They more or less get muscled out.

The current Indian team has the depth but tends to loose ground on the above points. When they don't, they also dominate New Zealand like they did in the first test. This test, they have lost on all three counts with dropped catches, and rash shots.

The situation has been made worse with Dhoni missing. It costs India their best keeper by far, a strong lower middle order batsman and an inspirational captain. Kartik has already contributed a dropped catch. The gap between him and the next best options for captainship also seem collosal now.

As for Yuvraj Singh, there is no way to hide him after this test. He will have to play the innings of his life to make up for his lapses in this test to save his test career.

The larger Nano issues

As mentioned in my earlier post, if it succeeds, Nano will be a major business triumph making them Tata the dominant car manufacturer replacing Maruti.

Tata has officially launched the Nano as the world's cheapest commercial car. This is expected to lead to a rise in car ownership in India. It is considered beneficial if one is to believe the media hype surrounding it.

As with all issues, the Nano launch will have its pros and cons, its supporters and critics.

The pros

1. An affordable car to a larger population base in a country where transport facilities overall are very poor.
2. Greater mobility as a car can carry more people over longer distances, also it is less tiring as it is compared to riding a bike.
3. All households having an income enought to afford two bikes will now afford a car.
4. It helps leverage the advantage of the improving inter city transport infrastructure (albeit slowly)
5. With a larger car owning population, the government will be under more pressure to ensure good infrastructure (hopefully)
   

The cons

1. The demand for fuel will go up significantly if the car is a major hit across the country.
2. The number of road fatalities will go up what with an already poor record at current traffic volumes.
3. The poor won't have much benefit except maybe a little less strain on public transport.
4. The generally poor infrastructure and endemic corruption in corporations will mean that urban India will have more traffic stress.
5. Cities will suffer additional traffic congestion.
6. Traffic pooling, though nice in theory, is unlikely as people who buy a Nano won't keep it at home.

I might have missed a few obvious ones in both of the above. For me, as of now the cons outnumber the pros.

Nano - Tata bid to capture Indian Car Market

Though one does not know the actual cost breakup of the Nano, it is likely that Ratan Tata won't mind selling it at a slight loss. In spite of all the hype about nation building, this is a purely business decision.

• Manufacture low end product and deliver to capture market even if at an initial loss.
• Move up the value chain using the leverage as the dominant car manufacturer.

Tata already has some penetration on the car segment through its Indica series. The Nano will strongly challenge Maruti's long hold as the numero uno car manufacturer. If it succeeds, Ratan Tata deserves full credit from a business perspective as he was willing to take that risk.

In the next post, I will look at some of the pros and cons of the Nano for India as a whole

Is Swat the new Rhineland

The Taliban takeover of Swat, a slice of Pakistani territory, is a historic first. A sovereign nation has succumbed to a hardline Islamic outfit and handed over its territory. Through effective use of bluff, bluster and deception against a weak democratic government, the Taliban has officially entered Pakistan.

Before WWII Nazi troops took over Rhineland, through bluff, bluster and deception against a weak democratic French government. Will Kashmir by the new Austria with Punjab-Sindh playing Czecho-Slovakia to the Taliban's war dance?

Nazi Germany never became a nuclear power. Pakistan is one with the least deterrence or control. The probablity of a first nuclear terror attack just went up. Will India will be the first target for such an attack? Israel and the US are more distant and harder to target.

India has historically been the primary target for the Jihadist version of Islam. Fighters were easier to get in poverty deserts of Persia, Arabia and Turkey with dreams of a rich region, fragmented and easy to raid and loot. Converting or destroying a rich, prosperous, predominantly non Islamic region was always on the agenda.

India, in the middle ages, was never united in fighting Islam. Has that changed now? A higher percentage of Muslims exist now than in the middle ages. Most are peaceful, moderate, nationalist. But even a tiny percentage would be enough. Just 1% of 1% of 134 million, still creates a significant pool of 13,400 the size of a pretty large enterprise.

Throw in Bangladesh, the Maoists - the Nepali and the Naxalite variety and it gets even better. Add their growing Hindu counterparts to the mix. A modern, liberal, democratic India looks to be under serious threat.

Is this the beginning of an inevitable regional skirmish leading to bigger things?

India's Valentine Day Brouhaha

The Saint Valentine's Day brouhaha has become a yearly phenomenon. Lovers in India's various urban/semi-urban pockets, usually left alone on most other days, suddenly become targets.

In rural India on the other hand, falling in love is looked down upon. Love affairs across class/caste/religion boundaries, are considered a crime of the highest order, sometimes an excuse for murder. Despite all the hype of a new India arriving onto the modern world, even deemed a new superpower, the real India is anything but.

Vast swathes of rural India and significant sections of urban India are still very much a feudal society. Caste distinctions run deep, deeper than those of class or religion. From the blatantly open casteism in states like Bihar to the very subtle inferences in highly educated, upper middle class, upper castes, it exists everywhere. The newly assertive lower castes have their own versions. This phenomenon transcents all religions in India.

Valentine's day appeals to a very particular section of Indian society, the rising middle class and existing upper classes. These are the elite of Indian society brought up on the fodder of western norms and education.

For them Valentine's day represents,

• Freedom from restrictive social norms of the past.
• A fullfillment of the aspiration to be like the west.
• The growing liberalism in society.
• The growing independance of women.
• India moving to be a developed country.

But it offends many at various levels from mild to extreme.

• As a corrupting influence of westernization.
• As a creeping influence of Christianity.
• For frustrated males who lack female companionship.
• For frustrated males who are unlikely to form healthy relationships with females.
• As a threat to the world view that existed before Valentine's day became popular.
• As a cynical excuse to gain political mileage as an end in itself.

In conclusion, neither views are right or wrong. All it shows is

1. India is not a westernized, highly developed, liberal country. It has some pockets which appear to be so.
2. All sections of society are not ready for such rapid change in their existing world views.
3. A feudal-democracy mixed political power structure will use such conflicts for their political goals.