Is Swat the new Rhineland

The Taliban takeover of Swat, a slice of Pakistani territory, is a historic first. A sovereign nation has succumbed to a hardline Islamic outfit and handed over its territory. Through effective use of bluff, bluster and deception against a weak democratic government, the Taliban has officially entered Pakistan.

Before WWII Nazi troops took over Rhineland, through bluff, bluster and deception against a weak democratic French government. Will Kashmir by the new Austria with Punjab-Sindh playing Czecho-Slovakia to the Taliban's war dance?

Nazi Germany never became a nuclear power. Pakistan is one with the least deterrence or control. The probablity of a first nuclear terror attack just went up. Will India will be the first target for such an attack? Israel and the US are more distant and harder to target.

India has historically been the primary target for the Jihadist version of Islam. Fighters were easier to get in poverty deserts of Persia, Arabia and Turkey with dreams of a rich region, fragmented and easy to raid and loot. Converting or destroying a rich, prosperous, predominantly non Islamic region was always on the agenda.

India, in the middle ages, was never united in fighting Islam. Has that changed now? A higher percentage of Muslims exist now than in the middle ages. Most are peaceful, moderate, nationalist. But even a tiny percentage would be enough. Just 1% of 1% of 134 million, still creates a significant pool of 13,400 the size of a pretty large enterprise.

Throw in Bangladesh, the Maoists - the Nepali and the Naxalite variety and it gets even better. Add their growing Hindu counterparts to the mix. A modern, liberal, democratic India looks to be under serious threat.

Is this the beginning of an inevitable regional skirmish leading to bigger things?